07-05-2018 14:40:34

Recently, due to factors such as the depreciation of the RMB, the continued pressure on environmental protection and the sharp changes in Sino-US trade relations, the paper and packaging industry is facing many risks. The printing factory is also affected.

1. The continued pressure on environmental protection

Since entering 2018, environmental protection pressure has been pressing step by step. In the past two months alone, a number of environmental protection policies have been promulgated. At present, the intensive supervision of the key areas of the Blue Sky Defence War in 2018-2019 has begun. The 200 inspection teams inspected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, the 11-cylinder plains and the Yangtze River Delta in accordance with the work plan.

 

At the same time, the National Emissions License Management Information Platform notified 559 paper companies that did not submit implementation reports as required. Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, Hunan, Tianjin and other provinces and cities have issued production plans for shutting down, limiting production and peaking. These will put a lot of pressure on the production of paper and packaging companies.

 

2. The depreciation of the RMB

After the fourth quarter of 2016, the paper industry entered the boom cycle. The price of wood pulp was highly correlated with the price of copper paper and double-adhesive paper. After the price of wood pulp rose or fell, the price of paper basically changed in the same direction. Therefore, the depreciation of the RMB is equivalent to the increase in the price of wood pulp.

In terms of waste paper, 45% of China's imported waste paper comes from the United States, while 61% of US export waste paper is sold to China. Affected by the depreciation of the RMB, the amount of US waste purchased in the same size will be reduced compared to the previous period. As a result, the cost of imported raw materials for paper mills may rise.

 

3. Sino-US trade relations change

Unlike the first batch of $50 billion, this time, pulp, paper and cardboard and paper products were included in the list, with a total of 223 sub-products, covering almost all paper products exported by China to the United States, including newsprint and cultural paper, coated paper, wrapping paper, specialty paper, household paper, etc. According to published data, in 2017, the US category imported US$3.2 billion from China. This is a part that directly affects the paper industry in China.

Considering that the $200 billion tariff list focuses on consumer goods dominated by China's light industry, this will have a large indirect impact on China's packaging paper and print industry.

 

At the same time, it is expected that China will adopt counter-measures to raise tariffs on US imports, such as paper pulp, waste paper and other papermaking materials, and even further reduce import quotas, which will have a greater impact on the cost of the entire domestic paper industry.

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