Recently, due to factors such as the
depreciation of the RMB, the continued pressure on environmental protection and
the sharp changes in Sino-US trade relations, the paper and packaging industry
is facing many risks. The printing
factory is also affected.
1. The continued pressure on environmental
Since entering 2018, environmental
protection pressure has been pressing step by step. In the past two months
alone, a number of environmental protection policies have been promulgated. At
present, the intensive supervision of the key areas of the Blue Sky Defence War
in 2018-2019 has begun. The 200 inspection teams inspected the
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, the 11-cylinder plains and
the Yangtze River Delta in accordance with the work plan.
At the same time, the National Emissions
License Management Information Platform notified 559 paper companies that did
not submit implementation reports as required. Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei,
Hunan, Tianjin and other provinces and cities have issued production plans for
shutting down, limiting production and peaking. These will put a lot of
pressure on the production of paper and packaging companies.
2. The depreciation of the RMB
After the fourth quarter of 2016, the paper
industry entered the boom cycle. The price of wood pulp was highly correlated
with the price of copper paper and double-adhesive paper. After the price of
wood pulp rose or fell, the price of paper basically changed in the same
direction. Therefore, the depreciation of the RMB is equivalent to the increase
in the price of wood pulp.
In terms of waste paper, 45% of China's
imported waste paper comes from the United States, while 61% of US export waste
paper is sold to China. Affected by the depreciation of the RMB, the amount of
US waste purchased in the same size will be reduced compared to the previous
period. As a result, the cost of imported raw materials for paper mills may
3. Sino-US trade relations change
Unlike the first batch of $50 billion, this
time, pulp, paper and cardboard and paper products were included in the list,
with a total of 223 sub-products, covering almost all paper products exported
by China to the United States, including newsprint and cultural paper, coated
paper, wrapping paper, specialty paper, household paper, etc. According to
published data, in 2017, the US category imported US$3.2 billion from China.
This is a part that directly affects the paper industry in China.
Considering that the $200 billion tariff
list focuses on consumer goods dominated by China's light industry, this will
have a large indirect impact on China's packaging paper and print industry.
the same time, it is expected that China will adopt counter-measures to raise
tariffs on US imports, such as paper pulp, waste paper and other papermaking
materials, and even further reduce import quotas, which will have a greater
impact on the cost of the entire domestic paper industry.